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Long-term Analysis of the Future of Transport

The future societal development and transport

Scenarios and Long-term Analysis on the Future of Transport

Tetraplan has performed an analysis of long-term societal drivers to the development of traffic on the Danish State Roads. In this context "long-term" was defined as the period from present time to 2040. The work of Tetraplan was input to a process in the Danish Road Directorate to integrate the long term developments of society in the regular planning efforts of the Directorate.

The Societal Drivers of Transport

The analysis started with a data base search to identify relevant available investigations of the long-term developments of the society and transport. Furthermore, the feasible methods to conduct an analysis were investigated. With the purpose of facilitating the analysis performed by Tetraplan and the concurrent process within the Danish Road Directorate, three principal tools were chosen and applied as the methodological framework of the analysis of the societal drivers to transport. In total more than 20 possible relevant studies and reports were identified and used in Tetraplan's analysis.

The Methods

The first method chosen was the "PESSTEL" analysis, defined as the analysis of P=Political, E=Economy, S=Social/cultural, S=Spatial, T=Technology, E=Environmental and L= Legal issues, often also referred to as the "PESTEL+" analysis. The second method was the "DOT" analysis, defined in the literature as the "Degree of Turbulence" method, which is a tool to systematically investigate different aspects and perspectives of change in a societal or company perspective. As the third methodological element, the principles of scenarios were applied to make the possible scope of change from different societal developments easier to apply in the future planning of the Road Directorate.

The Drivers of Transport and the White Paper on Transport 2011

From these efforts a total of 59 drivers in the literature were identified. These drivers were analysed together with a working group from the Danish Road Directorate, and finally boiled down to nine primary drivers which were thoroughly investigated. Furthermore, this analysis was used as a guide to an investigation of the background material on the forecasts the EU Commission used during the working process of the White Paper on Transport 2011. The scenarios of the White Paper were then subsequently used to enlighten the possible and probable developments valid to future traffic on the Danish State Roads.

Reports and Documentation

The entire analysis was documented in a comprehensive report. In addition, the works were condensed into a thematic report relating to about a dozen themes of specific relevance to the long-term planning process of the Danish Road Directorate.