EU Flag

EU Transport Forecasts 2010 to 2050

Tetraplan serve as lead partner to the TranScenario consortium

Following a public tender for a three year "Framework Contract for long-term Quantitative Assessment of Transport Policy Scenarios", the EU Commission, DG MOVE awarded the three year contract to a Trans-European Consortium with Tetraplan performing as "Lead Partner" to 11 participants from seven EU countries.

The TranScenario consortium consists of three universities, six consultancies and two semi-public institutions originating at a University and based on the university's R&D activities.

The Baseline scenario

The first task was started in the early summer of 2012 and was the establishment of a comprehensive baseline scenario of the development in EU and the surrounding countries from 2010 to 2050. The scenario is based on information on the expected future socio-economic development and forecasts a large number of variables related to transport, energy and the environment. It also involves all modes of transport: road, rail, air, inland waterways and maritime. Furthermore also both passenger and freight transport of all modes.

The models

The EU Commission has targeted the use of two primary mathematical models to this work. A modified version of the TRANS.-TOOLS version 2.6 used in the TENConnect2 study of 2010/11, and the PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model developed by the E3Mlab/ICCS affiliated with the National Technical University of Athens.

The White Paper on Transport and TranScenario activities

It is expected that the consortium during the coming two years will develop possibly one more major and comprehensive "baseline" forecast, a number of scenarios to the baselines, and a larger number of variants to the scenarios investigating different aspects of the possible future development.

In general this project can be seen as a follow-up activity to the work performed during the process in the EU Commission to produce the "White Paper on Transport - roadmap to a single European transport area towards a competitive and resource-efficient transport system."